CNN
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Brutally cold Arctic air across the eastern two-thirds of the United States is opening the door for an impactful winter storm that will take a somewhat unusual track through the South with snow and ice.
The storm will hit just days after the most impactful storm of the season so far killed at least four people, caused hundreds of crashes and knocked out power to hundreds of thousands.
Around 200,000 homes and businesses from Missouri to Virginia were still without power Tuesday morning, according to PowerOutage.us, and dealing with dangerously cold temperatures that are cold even for the coldest month of the year.
These unusually cold temperatures, which will dip deep into the South, will allow the new storm to put out snow and ice in Texas and other parts of the region.
Spotty wintry weather will begin Wednesday night in western Texas with light snow and freezing drizzle as the storm organizes. Thursday will be the most impactful day for winter weather for much of the southern Plains as the storm hits its stride.
Snow could begin before sunrise Thursday in northern Texas, including in the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex, and continue into Thursday night. Snow could hold off until after sunrise in southern Oklahoma and Arkansas, but once it begins, it will likely continue through Friday morning.
A wide area of 3 to 6 inches of snow is possible from northern Texas to southeast Oklahoma and southwest Arkansas.
Temperatures will be in the 20s in northern Texas and the teens in parts of Oklahoma and Arkansas when snow begins. Most places will struggle to reach a high temperature above freezing by the afternoon, so more snow could stick to the ground instead of melting on contact.
Frigid temperatures will increase power demands in Texas but grid conditions are expected to be normal, ERCOT — the operator responsible for the state’s electrical grid — said in a weather watch issued Sunday. The state’s grid failed during 2021’s disastrous winter storm and prolonged deep freeze, resulting in the deaths of more than 200 people.
Some sleet could mix with snow for a time in the Dallas area Thursday as temperatures hover around or just above freezing. This could limit snow totals in the metro, but also create hazardous conditions by introducing ice to the heavily traveled area. Mixed precipitation will be of much greater concern just south of the snow area in places like Waco, Texas, Thursday.
The precipitation type for Waco and surrounding locales will flip between snow, freezing rain and rain throughout Thursday, making for very messy and slick conditions.
Any amount of ice is dangerous; just a thin layer — even a tenth of an inch — can turn paved surfaces into skating rinks, causing people to slip and vehicles to slide out of control, like what occurred over the weekend in the central US.
Rain and perhaps a few embedded thunderstorms will soak central and south Texas, including Austin and Houston, Thursday. Flooding is possible, especially in coastal Texas where heavy thunderstorms that bubble to life just off the coast could slowly push ashore.
The storm will track farther east Thursday night and Friday and bring messy winter weather to much of the South. But exactly who gets snow, ice or mainly rain — and how much — is still incredibly difficult to determine. Small shifts in the storm’s track could change the outcomes entirely.
Some areas could start as snow but change over to an icy mix as warmer air enters the area, while other spots start as rain or an icy mix and gradually change over to snow.
Weather models on Tuesday suggested snow could spread into parts of Arkansas and Tennessee overnight Thursday while a mix of snow and sleet could work into northern Mississippi and Alabama. On Friday, some snow could fall in far northern Georgia along with the possibility of freezing rain in Atlanta.
But again, exactly where the storm tracks and how much cold air is available will be the difference between if Atlanta faces freezing rain, snow or just rain.
What the storm does beyond Friday remains an even bigger question mark that should become clearer once it organizes and strengthens late Wednesday and Thursday.
There are two weekend scenarios for now. In the first, the storm continues to track east and exits into the Atlantic off the Southeast coast. This would deliver wintry weather to the Carolinas and perhaps some areas farther north Friday night and Saturday.
In the second scenario, the storm tracks east before curving north and hugging the Atlantic coast and strengthening just off the mid-Atlantic coast. This could unleash a wintry mess over parts of the Carolinas and mid-Atlantic Friday night and Saturday and bring snow to parts of the Northeast’s populous I-95 corridor Saturday.