CNN
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Tropical Storm Francine is nearing hurricane status as it charges toward the Gulf Coast, where some Louisiana communities have already begun to evacuate and slam closed their floodgates in anticipation of the storm’s likely landfall there on Wednesday.
Francine could become a hurricane sometime Tuesday and strengthen into a Category 2 hurricane by landfall. A storm of that strength is capable of inflicting extensive damage to homesand widespread power outages, prompting Louisiana’s governor to issue a statewide emergency declaration ahead of its arrival.
By early Tuesday, Francine was about 125 miles from the Texas-Mexico border and packing maximum sustained winds of 65 mph – just 9 mph short of being a hurricane, according to the National Hurricane Center.
Flooding rainfall, powerful winds and potentially life-threatening storm surge could pummel parts of the upper Texas and Louisiana coastlines as Francine passes through. The most severe impacts are likely to be felt in southern Louisiana around the time of landfall.
More than 5 million people are under flood watches across the Gulf Coast so far. The storm is expected to bring rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches from the coastline of northeast Mexico to southern Mississippi, and some places could see as much as 12 inches.
In addition to a hurricane warning in Louisiana, tropical storm warnings and watches have been issued along a stretch of the Louisiana and Texas coast. A storm surge warning has also been issued from High Island, Texas, to the mouth of the Mississippi River.
Though it was crawling northward at 5 mph around 10 p.m. CT Monday, the storm is expected to pick up speedand significantly strengthen Tuesday.
It’s still too early to determine exactly where Francine will strike Louisiana and it is possible the storm could end up stronger than forecast. The storm could be fueled by very warm ocean water – a symptom of a planet warming from fossil fuel pollution – that essentially acts as jet fuel for tropical storms.
Preparations are well underway in Louisiana, where coastal communities are all too familiar with the disaster that such storms can bring. Gov. Jeff Landry said Monday he has already asked the Federal Emergency Management Agency to prepare to assist.
Mandatory evacuations orders are in place in Louisiana’s Cameron Parish, according to an official’s social media. Both mandatory and voluntary evacuations were ordered farther east in Jefferson Parish’s town of Grand Isle, which was decimated by the Category 4 storm Ida in 2021.
Some parishes, including St. Mary and Terrebonne, started to close off floodgates and distribute sand bags Monday. Terrebonne Parish also declared a state of emergency, according to a news release.
Schools are closed across several Louisiana parishes on Wednesday and Thursday, including Jefferson, Terrebonne and Orleans, which encompasses New Orleans.
In Mississippi, people in the city of Pass Christian have begun to voluntarily evacuate.
What to expect along Francine’s path
The impacts of Francis will begin to be felt even before its arrival and may last through late this week as it pushes onshore and begins to weaken.
“Francine is expected to bring heavy rainfall and the risk of considerable flash flooding along the coast of northeast Mexico, the far lower and far upper Texas coasts, much of Louisiana, and Mississippi into Thursday morning,” the National Hurricane Center said.
As early as Tuesday, Tropical storm-force winds will begin to whip across portions of the coasts of northeastern Mexico and south Texas. Storm surge and rough surf could also cause minor flooding on the Mexico coast early this week.
Storm surge will begin to ramp up as Francine nears landfall, causing normally dry areas to be inundated with several feet of water. Parts of the central Louisiana coast could endure the most severe flooding, with surge levels potentially reaching up to 10 feet above normal.
A storm surge watch was issued Monday for coastal areas of far eastern Texas through Louisiana and Mississippi.
Heavy rain also presents a significant threat, beginning in parts of Texas and northwest Mexico Monday and moving further into western Gulf Coast Tuesday. Texas will get most of its heavy rain early this week, but some of the most torrential conditions could hold off until late Tuesday night for Louisiana.
The storm should weaken quickly as it moves onshore Wednesday, but rainfall is expected to drench parts of the lower and middle Mississippi River Valley through the rest of the week. The rain will move north along the Mississippi River Thursday, a potentially welcome replenishment to the river’s currently low water levels.
Though Francine will move through by the end of the week, more trouble could be simmering in the Atlantic.
Two other areas in the open Atlantic have a medium chance of developing in the coming days, according to the hurricane center. Any possible tropical system from either is still days away from developing, so it’s far too early to speculate on where they could end up.