Tropical Storm Erin formed Monday morning in the eastern Atlantic Ocean and forecasters expect it to become the first hurricane of the Atlantic season this week.
Located just west of Africa’s Cabo Verde islands Monday morning, Erin is the fifth named storm of the 2025 Atlantic season. It has sustained winds of 45 mph and is expected to gradually strengthen in the coming days. It could become a hurricane as soon as Wednesday evening.
The system is tracking west through a portion of the Atlantic known as the “main development region” that stretches from Africa’s west coast to the Caribbean. It’s where many tropical systems come to life – fueled by very warm ocean water – as hurricane season enters its typically busiest weeks.
It will take much of the week for Erin to make its way into the western Atlantic. It’s far too early to know exactly what kind of a threat it will pose to the Caribbean, Bermuda or even the United States once it gets there.
What happens as the weekend approaches will depend on both Erin’s strength and the strength and position of the Bermuda high, a large area of high pressure over the Atlantic Ocean that acts like a steering wheel for tropical systems.
There’s plenty of fuel for Erin to tap into once it reaches the western Atlantic though, as sea surface temperatures are much warmer than normal. They aren’t quite as warm as the record levels reached in 2023 and 2024, but are still far warmer than they’d be in a world that wasn’t heating up due to fossil fuel pollution.
Erin could explode in strength once it reaches this very warm water and become the season’s first major hurricane — Category 3 or higher — as early as Saturday, according to the National Hurricane Center.
August is when the tropics usually come alive: The busiest stretch of the season typically spans from mid-August to mid-October.
So far in 2025, there have been four named tropical storms — Andrea, Barry, Chantal and Dexter — but no hurricanes. A lull is typical early in the season, as historically the first hurricane forms by today, August 11. But hurricanes have roared to life much earlier in the season in recent years.
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There had already been two hurricanes – Beryl and Debby – with another soon to come – Ernesto – at this point last year.
Forecasters expect above-average tropical activity this year and more storms could form in the coming weeks.
The National Hurricane Center is also pinpointing two other areas for potential tropical development this week. Each area is over the open Atlantic and as of Monday has only a low chance of development, but it’s a sign that the basin is ready to rumble.