CNN
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A broad area of low pressure in the western Caribbean Sea is becoming better organized and the National Hurricane Center is initiating advisories on the system as of 4 p.m. Sunday.
The disturbance is being called Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen, a designation used by the National Hurricane Center to mark a system that has not yet met the criteria for a tropical depression or storm, but is expected to bring impacts to land within the 48-hour window that requires alerts to be issued.
Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen has maximum sustained winds estimated to be 35 mph and is moving to the north at 7 mph. The disturbance sits 345 miles south of Kingston, Jamaica. The next name on the 2024 Atlantic hurricane list is Rafael.
A hurricane watch has been issued for the Cayman Islands: Grand Cayman, Little Cayman and Cayman Brac. A tropical storm warning has been issued for Jamaica.
Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen is forecast to become a tropical storm as it approaches Jamaica by Monday, with hurricane conditions possible in the Cayman Islands Tuesday into Wednesday.
“This system is expected to become a tropical depression tonight and steady strengthening is forecast,” the National Hurricane Center says. The first forecast track calls for soon-to-be Rafael to become a Category 1 hurricane as it approaches western Cuba on Wednesday.
Regardless of tropical storm development, this system will bring very heavy rain, tropical storm-force winds, storm surge, and high surf to Jamaica, the Cayman Islands and southern Cuba over the next several days.
“Rainfall totals between 3 to 6 inches with locally up to 9 inches are expected. Flooding could occur over portions of Jamaica and Cuba, with mudslides possible,” the National Hurricane Center says.
While there is uncertainty in the forecast track later in the week, the hurricane center warns, “heavy rainfall will spread north into Florida and adjacent areas of the Southeast United States mid to late week.”
Forecasters say those with interests in the Florida Keys should monitor the latest information and advisories closely. “The system is forecast to approach the northern Gulf Coast as a tropical storm later this week, but given uncertainties in the long-range forecast, it is too soon to determine what, if any, impacts could occur,” the hurricane center says.
Air Force Hurricane Hunters are currently investigating this system and have two more missions planned in the next 24 hours.