JALEN GREEN ACKNOWLEDGED that he wasn’t quite ready for the playoff stage.
For Green, the Toyota Center lights felt brighter than ever for Game 1 against the Golden State Warriors, a foe that features a few future Hall of Famers with long track records of playoff success. This was the postseason debut for Green and several other young core players for the Houston Rockets, a franchise whose painful rebuilding process that started with the trade of James Harden is just beginning to pay major dividends.
“The court looked huge,” Green said a few nights later. “I couldn’t really get a chance to settle in. My legs were a little shaky.”
The nerves were evident in the 23-year-old Green’s inefficient performance. He scored only seven points on 3-of-15 shooting in Houston’s 95-85 loss. That playoff opener reinforced the common perception around the league that the Rockets, the Western Conference’s surprising, scrappy No. 2 seed, are still one major piece away from being a bona fide title contender.
“They trippin’,” Green said after bouncing back with 38 points in Houston’s Game 2 win, a display of the former No. 2 overall pick’s potential. “I’m gonna go out and handle business at the end of the day. The ball is gonna be in my hands in the fourth quarter, and we’re gonna make something happen.”
But this isn’t how the series has played out as it shifts back to Houston with the Rockets on the brink of elimination. Green scored in single-digits again in both of the losses in San Francisco and was a crunch-time spectator in Game 4, which went down to the wire, with Alperen Sengun missing a tough potential go-ahead shot over Draymond Green on an isolation in the final seconds.
The question remains glaring: How can the Rockets get the elite offensive engine that all great teams need?
The hope in Houston is that player indeed can be homegrown.
“We are not in the business of predetermining ceilings for our players,” general manager Rafael Stone told ESPN.
But Plan B would be to cash in some of the assets that the Rockets patiently accumulated over the past five years to speed up the process via a blockbuster trade.
Green is Houston’s leading scorer and one of a handful of “bets,” as Stone puts it, that the Rockets have on the board to grow into that All-NBA talent necessary to make a title run. Sengun, a skilled center, made his first All-Star appearance at age 22 this season. Amen Thompson, 22, the No. 4 pick in the 2023 draft, has already established himself as a dominant defensive force and is just starting to scratch the surface of his offensive potential. Rockets decision-makers consider guard Reed Sheppard, the No. 3 pick who hasn’t cracked a deep rotation on a consistent basis as a rookie, as perhaps the most gifted offensive talent on the roster.
“We’re all on the same page as far as what we have in our organization and wanting to see it through and seeing what all these young guys can become,” Rockets coach Ime Udoka told ESPN recently. “When you have this many high draft picks, you want to see who becomes what. I understood when I came to take the job that we were going to try to develop these guys and see what we can get to. I think they’ve all shown growth and potential. And the next step is, who can be that consistent leader for us?
“So to try to expedite the process by going out and getting one piece now is kind of doing a disservice to what we all talked about coming into it. That’s our vision, and I think the playoffs this year will give us a good picture of that and put guys in different situations and high-pressure situations to see how they react to it.”
The evaluation of the initial playoff experience for the Rockets’ rising young stars will be an important element of those internal discussions. A blockbuster trade would require the Rockets to give up some of that young talent, although Houston has made it known to other front offices that Thompson is considered untouchable.
“There’s no question in my mind that there are multiple guys on this roster now who can potentially be the best player on a championship team, given their age,” Patrick Fertitta, Tilman’s 30-year-old son and ownership’s day-to-day presence in basketball operations, told ESPN late in the regular season. “You don’t see guys at this age be that person yet, but I have a lot of confidence that one of these guys, if not a few of them, can become that.
“With that being said, any time a guy at that level becomes available, it would be remiss not to do your due diligence.”
THE ROCKETS HAVE constructed a team that reflects their hard-nosed coach’s image. The additions of rugged veterans Fred VanVleet and Dillon Brooks, as well as the development of Houston’s young talent, positioned the Rockets to make a massive leap to respectability last season followed by another jump to a 52-30 record this season.
Udoka’s Rockets win with toughness and physicality, ranking first in the league in rebounding rate and fifth in defensive rating, making up for a mediocre offense. But that style, without a superstar, has a ceiling.
“We know in the playoffs sometimes, it boils down to if you have an unguardable guy in the last five minutes that can close the game,” VanVleet told ESPN. “We got everything else. I don’t think it’s like some savior that’s going to come here and save all our sins, but it’s like, do you have a guy you could throw it to the last five minutes in a playoff series that can win you games when it matters the most?
“I think that if we had that, I think we would be considered more title favorites. Now, you still can have success in the playoffs, but it’s just harder. The margin of error era is smaller.”
VanVleet hasn’t proved to be that player, but he’s a tremendous leader who factors into the Rockets’ future whether the franchise picks up his $44.9 million team option for next season or signs him to a long-term deal. He also agrees with Udoka and the front office that there are potential superstars already on the roster.
In fact, some of the league’s best players are occasionally used as comparisons for the young talent on the Rockets’ roster inside the team’s gleaming new practice facility.
For instance, it has been noted that Green’s career statistical production is fairly similar to Phoenix Suns superstar Devin Booker‘s first four seasons, although Booker had established himself as an elite scorer by this age, albeit on a bad team. The knocks on Green now are that he hasn’t been consistent or efficient, but Booker is proof of the progress a volume-scoring shooting guard can make in those areas as he matures.
“I don’t know if you can go get another 2 guard with the upside or the talent level,” VanVleet said of Green. “[Anthony Edwards] maybe in Minnesota. I don’t know, does Book have more talent than Jalen or is he more skilled and more polished and more experienced and older? … I don’t know what Jalen will look like when he’s 26, 27, 28 after playoff series. And that’s the upside, where it’s like potential can get a little intoxicating. He has the talent. There’s no reason for him not to reach that level. He’s got to go through it; he’s got to fail.”
Sengun’s stats at 22 resemble three-time MVP Nikola Jokic‘s at that age, although rival scouts and executives consider three-time All-Star Domantas Sabonis to be the more reasonable comparison among the league’s high-scoring, savvy-passing big men.
“His highlights and his flash, everything is loud,” VanVleet said of Sengun. “His mistakes are loud, and his success is loud. Once he gets more where he’s hitting the singles on a daily basis, I think that his potential and his level will continue to grow.”
Rockets front office staffers rhetorically wonder if the 6-foot-7 Thompson, whose jumper is very much a work in progress, could do many of the same things Russell Westbrook did in his prime. The Rockets haven’t often given Thompson the keys of the offense to run as a point guard yet, but they certainly haven’t ruled that out in the future.
Udoka displayed that kind of belief in Thompson when he called his number with the game on the line in the final seconds of the Rockets’ Jan. 27 road game against the defending champion Boston Celtics. Thompson attacked All-Star wing Jaylen Brown in isolation, creating a few feet of space in the paint for a winning floater to cap a 33-point performance.
“He’s already become a really good NBA player,” Stone said. “He should be much, much better than this year next year, and that should go on for the foreseeable future. Great kid, works really hard, is really smart. Everything we’ve asked him to do, he’s done. He’s done it quickly and at times shockingly easily.”
Sheppard is occasionally mentioned in the same breath as Hall of Fame point guard Steve Nash, another small guard who played sparingly as a rookie. At 6-foot-2, 185 pounds, Sheppard faces a steep learning curve to adjust to the NBA, especially on a competitive team, but the Rockets remain bullish on his potential to develop into a star.
“I think Reed’s just a really, really talented player,” Stone said. “Very few people shoot as well as him. Very few people pass as well as him, and more even than pass, see the offense so clearly and so easily. That’s not really a skill that is taught, not at the level he can do it. We think that he has a chance to be really special.”
Once their season ends, Houston’s brass will have a better feel for just how close the Rockets are to being serious contenders. That will factor into the front office’s offseason decisions, but the Rockets will be reluctant to make any moves that will shorten the franchise’s potential runway to compete for championships.
“This league and this business is a very emotional one,” Patrick Fertitta said. “There’s the thrill of victory and the agony of defeat, and it’s important that you don’t make wholesale changes or even changes on the margins based on emotion.”
THE ROCKETS’ BRASS — Stone, Udoka and Patrick Fertitta — are aligned in the ambition to allow this young group to grow together. Nevertheless, it is anticipated that there will be internal discussions at a minimum this summer regarding potential star pursuits in the trade market.
Does Kevin Durant make sense for the Rockets entering his age-37 season, considering the costs of trading for him and extending his contract? How aggressively would Houston go after 30-year-old Giannis Antetokounmpo if he finally asks for a trade out of Milwaukee? How about younger stars who would better fit Houston’s timeline? Is Zion Williamson‘s immense potential worth the risks? Maybe Ja Morant if he ends up as a trade possibility?
“It’s a very high bar to do a transaction that changes things,” Stone told ESPN, emphasizing the optimism that the improvement of the young players already on the roster can fuel the Rockets’ continued ascension.
Patrick Fertitta was the high-ranking Rockets executive who declared to ESPN that the organization was “comfortable being uncomfortable” after Harden, the longtime face of the franchise, demanded a trade during the 2020 offseason. The quote was uttered under the cloak of anonymity at the time, but Fertitta is proud of it.
Those three words represent the patience that the Rockets have operated under for the past five years.
The statement specifically applied to dealing with Harden’s aggressive discontent while negotiating a trade the Rockets believed could set them up to eventually open another window as a title contender. Houston’s brass made the determination to prioritize a historic haul of first-round picks from the Brooklyn Nets over the Philadelphia 76ers‘ offer built around then-All-Star guard Ben Simmons, a decision that was criticized at the time but has aged extremely well.
Patrick Fertitta and Stone had to convince Tilman Fertitta, a billionaire who bought the franchise when the Rockets ranked among the NBA’s elite teams, that intentionally bottoming out was Houston’s most realistic path back to being a contender. They also had to talk Tilman into sticking with the plan at times during the ensuing three seasons when Houston won a total of only 59 games.
Almost five years later, the Rockets’ roster is stacked with direct and indirect rewards from the Harden deal. Green, Jabari Smith Jr. and Thompson were added with high lottery picks as a result of the Rockets’ terrible records over that three-year span. Tari Eason, like Smith a valued, defense-minded role player, and Sheppard have been selected with the picks from Brooklyn.
In a separate deal last summer, Houston gave Brooklyn back control of the Nets’ first-round pick in the next two drafts in return for another pick haul. As a result, the Rockets own the Suns’ 2025, 2027 and 2029 picks, as well as the Dallas Mavericks‘ 2029 first-rounder. Houston also held onto first-round swap rights from the Nets in 2027.
Those are the assets that would allow the Rockets to engage in any superstar trade discussions this summer — if that’s a path Houston opts to take. That’s far from a certainty, regardless of the Rockets’ playoff results.
“Even though it can be exciting to feel like you are as close as you may be, it’s important to move with the same level of patience that got us to where we are and to make sure that we’re always making decisions based on not just today, but the future,” Patrick Fertitta said. “Because we never want to value the near term over the long term. If the right opportunity presents itself where we feel like we can get materially better, we’re always going to do the work to know if it’s the right thing to do.
“But in a perfect world, we’d love to see this group grow up together as they already have and become contenders in this league. And if everybody can get better individually and collectively, we think that this group that we have today has the ability to compete in May and June — and hopefully sooner than later.”
ESPN’s Michael C. Wright contributed to this report.