We’ve still got a long way to go until the World Cup kicks off next June. Outside of the three hosts, the U.S., Mexico, and Canada, no one else has even qualified yet.
Over the next 15 months, a lot can change — and a lot will change. Players will switch allegiances. Stars will get injured. Prospects will become stars. Veterans will have career years. Promising players will fall out with new managers. Someone might eat tainted meat.
Just take Argentina. About 15 months before the last World Cup, they beat Bolívia, 3-0, in qualifying, and Lionel Messi scored a hat trick. (OK fine, some things never change.) Of the 11 players who started that match, just five started the World Cup final win against France. So, at this point before the World Cup, the best national team in the world experienced a more-than-50% turnover by the time the tournament started.
It was no different for the U.S. men’s national team, either. Of the 11 players who started the 4-1 qualifying win over Honduras in September 2021, six didn’t even make the 2022 World Cup roster!
So, as a general rule of thumb: whatever teams you see on the field during the current international break, expect those teams to be at least 50% different when you see them at the 2025 World Cup.
But while starting lineups are fungible, the overall quality of the player pool is not. Outside of a handful of dual-nationals, the players eligible to play for Brazil or Belgium or Bulgaria won’t change from now until next summer.
So, with over a year to go, it’s worth taking stock of the quality of talent available to every national team, and then we’ll rank the top 50, from last to first.
How the World Cup contender rankings work
There are essentially three levels to national team talent:
1) Overall depth: How many quality players do you have?
2) High-end depth: How many starter-quality players do you have?
3) World-class talent: How many stars do you have?
To quantify all of that, we’re relying on three key metrics.