CNN
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Things change fast in Donald Trump’s world.
A few days ago, the US president falsely branded Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky as a “dictator” who started Russia’s war in Ukraine and had “no cards” to play.
But on Friday the Ukrainian war hero will get a full White House welcome.
“We’re going to have a very good meeting. … We’re going to get along really well. OK. We have a lot of respect. I have a lot of respect for him,” Trump said Thursday.
Zelensky has had his own epiphany.
Last week, he accused Trump of ushering Russian President Vladimir Putin out of isolation after the US sent his officials to peace talks in Saudi Arabia without Ukraine. And he warned that the US president was living in a “disinformation space.”
But Zelensky has learned a critical lesson: Give Trump the win.
The Ukrainian president is traveling to Washington to sign an agreement for the US to exploit Ukraine’s rare earth mineral resources. The first draft of the deal looked a lot like colonial-style pillage being forced upon a desperate nation; Zelensky refused to sign it, warning he couldn’t sell out his nation’s wealth. Trump had claimed he could make half a trillion dollars to pay back US taxpayers for the military and financial lifeline to Ukraine after the Russian invasion.
The latest version appears far less onerous for Ukraine — which initiated discussions with the US last year about using its mineral stocks to finance the rebuilding of its devastated cities and infrastructure. There’s talk of a joint reconstruction fund but no mention of Trump’s initial claim for a $500 billion value — which was a perfect metaphor for a foreign policy vision that sees the world as a real estate deal.
Perhaps. But even if he’s managed to remove the most punitive aspects of the proposed deal, the truth is that Zelensky had little choice. He’s trying to force his way back into the peace talks. And if Zelensky’s first visit with Trump since his reelection cools fears Ukraine is set to be sold out, it may also hold the possibility of a long-term US relationship with the country – a prospect that seemed unlikely only a few days ago.
Zelensky is styling the agreement as only a framework for a future pact — largely because he’s trying to leverage Ukraine’s mineral wealth for future US security guarantees he sees as vital to the survival of any eventual peace deal.
So why the thaw?
Trump offered a clue earlier this week during a meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron.
“I do deals. My whole life is deals,” Trump said.
Just because the rare earth minerals deal with Ukraine seems likely to fall short of the president’s expectations, it doesn’t mean that he won’t market it as an extraordinary victory for himself and Americans.
“We’re going to be signing an agreement, which will be a very big agreement,” the president said before a Cabinet meeting on Wednesday.
Trump’s zeal for a deal even led him to conveniently forget his previous claim that Zelensky — against whom he bears a grudge because the Ukrainian president was on the other end of the call that led to his first impeachment — was a dictator.
“Did I say that? I can’t believe I said that. Next question?” Trump said in the Oval Office on Thursday, with the hint of a smirk.
Trump insists he trusts Putin
A lot might have changed between Zelensky and Trump in recent days.
But nothing has changed between Trump and Putin, and the US leader’s latest display of complete trust in the Russian leader on Thursday set off a huge, flashing alarm bell about the kind of deal he might try to do with Russia.
“I think he’ll keep his word. I’ve spoken to him, I’ve known him for a long time now, you know?” Trump said in the Oval Office alongside British Prime Minister Keir Starmer. “I don’t believe he is going to violate his word. I don’t think he’ll be back when we make a deal.”
There’s an argument that only Trump among Western leaders could get Putin to the table and end a war that has inflicted a devastating toll among civilians, destroyed vast swaths of Ukraine and rocked the world. And if the president secures a just and lasting peace, he’ll deserve the Nobel Prize he craves.
But there’s tangible fear among US allies in Europe that Trump will settle for any deal with the Russian leader that validates his illegal conquest of about 20% of Ukraine’s territory, sets the table for an even worse war in the future, and tempts Putin to try to bite off another chunk of Europe – perhaps the Baltic states.
Both Putin and Macron this week made the point in stark terms in front of Trump.
“We have to get it right,” Starmer said during a press conference with Trump on Thursday. “There’s a famous slogan in the United Kingdom from after the Second World War that is that we have to win the peace. And that’s what we must do now, because it can’t be peace that rewards the aggressor, or that gives encouragement to regimes like Iran.”
Macron tried to impress upon Trump the impossibility of doing a deal with the Russian leader, reliving his frustration over his dealings with Putin before the invasion. “I had several discussions, especially (at the) beginning of 2022, several times, 7 hours with President Putin. Fifteen days before the launching of the attack, he denied everything,” Macron said.
There’s no reason for Trump to believe in Putin’s good faith. The last five US administrations have all tried to reset relations with Russia and its strongman leader. Each attempt failed. And Putin has repeatedly broken his word – most recently when he denied he had any plan to invade Ukraine, then did.
Trump’s willingness to take the Russian president at his word – and the possibility that could lead to appeasement rather than a solid, lasting peace deal – worries many former senior officials.
“I think it’s important for the president, and I understand he’s trying to get Putin to the table, but he has got to know that Putin is not trustworthy and that anything he does has to be verified,” former CIA director and Defense Secretary Leon Panetta told CNN’s Erin Burnett on Thursday.
Retired Adm. James Stavridis, the former NATO supreme commander, added: “I wouldn’t trust him as far as I can throw him,” adding that history shows why only US security guarantees could secure a peace deal.
Stavridis paraphrased the message Trump should spell out to Putin when they meet – possibly in the next few weeks. “Tell him, ‘The day you reinvade is the day we bring Ukraine in NATO,’” he said. “Or, ‘The day you reinvade is the day US troops will join the French and the British troops in Ukraine.’”
Trump may be listening to such viewpoints — but given his volatility and inconsistency, it’s often hard to be sure.
“It’s a — trust and verify, let’s call it that,” the president said Thursday. “I know a lot of people that you would say no chance that they would ever deceive you, and they’re the worst people in the world. I know others that you would guarantee they would deceive you and you know what? They’re 100 percent honorable. So, you never know what you’re getting.”
Starmer lays it on thick
Starmer’s visit was an example of the show that European leaders are being forced to put on to try to reach a president who is threatening to tear down an 80-year-old international liberal order in place since the end of World War II.
The prime minister, a disciplined and reserved former barrister, is not known for political theatrics. But he made a great show of pulling a letter out of his pocket in the Oval Office from King Charles III inviting Trump for a state visit.
“The answer is yes. Your country is a fantastic country,” the delighted president said and praised the king, the son of the late Queen Elizabeth II, who hosted Trump at a state visit in 2017. “He’s a great gentleman. A great, great gentleman. Oh,” Trump said, holding up the letter. “That’s quite a signature, isn’t it? Beautiful. And he’s a beautiful man, a wonderful man.”
Starmer, in one of the most unrestrained efforts to stroke Trump’s ego of any foreign leader so far in his second term, laid it on thick. “It’s an invitation for a second state visit. This is really special. This has never happened before. This is unprecedented.”
The British prime minister may find out that flattery will sometimes get you nowhere with Trump. But as it stands, the destiny of Ukraine may be on a tightrope between the pomp and pageantry of a trip to see the king on the one hand, and on the other, Putin — to whom the US president often genuflects.
But one veteran British political observer was appalled by the spectacle.
“It was humiliating in a way,” Vince Cable, a former Cabinet minister and former leader of the Liberal Democrats, told CNN’s Jim Sciutto on CNN International. “I suppose one has to admire the fact that he’s willing to accept this humiliation to achieve some kind of political result,” Cable said of Starmer.
“It embarrasses me as a British person to see this kind of abasement,” Cable said. “But you know, if he can achieve anything, I guess we’ll just have to accept that’s the way it’s necessary with this president.”