Washington
CNN
—
President Donald Trump has for years wildly exaggerated the size of US trade deficits with various other countries. Now, as Trump cites those trade deficits as a key justification for his tariff policies, newly released federal statistics show just how wrong Trump’s numbers are.
Previously released federal figures for 2023 and part of 2024 had already shown that Trump’s claims about the US deficits with Canada, Mexico, China, and the European Union were way off. Now, the Department of Commerce has published full-year 2024 figures that allow us to say precisely how far off.
Before we get into the data, a quick reminder: Having a trade deficit with another country means the US imports more goods and services from the country than the US exports. Though Trump often describes trade deficits as subsidies or losses, having a deficit does not mean the US is giving away money for nothing.
For example, the US trade deficit with Canada exists largely because the US imports a large quantity of cheap Canadian heavy crude oil that helps keep gas prices down for American drivers.
Canada
Trump, who has imposed 25% tariffs on almost all products imported from Canada, has repeatedly said this year that the US has a “$200 billion” trade deficit with Canada – sometimes making the claim explicitly and sometimes using vaguer language about a supposed $200 billion subsidy or loss to Canada.
Trump’s number is not even close to correct. The new federal statistics show the 2024 deficit with Canada in goods and services trade was $35.7 billion, down from $40.6 billion in 2023.
Even if you only count trade in goods and ignore the services trade at which the US excels, the 2024 deficit with Canada was $70.6 billion. It was $72.3 billion in 2023.
Mexico
Trump also imposed 25% tariffs on products imported from Mexico, though on Thursday he announced a pause, until April 2, on tariffs on any Mexican item that “falls under” the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement he signed in his first term. He said in a Fox News interview in February, “We have a deficit with Mexico of $350 billion.”
Again, that’s distant from reality. The new federal figures show the 2024 deficit with Mexico in goods and services trade was $179 billion, up from $162.1 billion in 2023.
The 2024 deficit with Mexico in goods trade alone was $181.5 billion, up from $161.4 billion in 2023.
China
Trump, who has imposed a series of tariffs in his first and second presidential terms on products imported from China, said in a Fox News Radio interview in February that “we have a deficit with China of over $1 trillion.” He repeated the “$1 trillion” number in a February speech.
That, too, is a massive exaggeration. The new federal figures show that the 2024 deficit with China in goods and services trade was $263.3 billion. That’s up from $252.1 billion in 2023 – but lower than in every year of Trump’s first presidency.
Trade deficits rise and fall for numerous reasons other than presidential policy. We mention the fact that Biden-era deficits were lower than Trump-era deficits, though, because Trump has claimed that Biden let the deficit with China “get out of hand.”
The 2024 deficit with China in goods trade alone was $295.2 billion, up from $278.7 billion in 2023.
European Union
Trump has regularly, and incorrectly, castigated the European Union over its trade practices. He told reporters in February that “with the European Union, it’s, you know, $350 billion deficit.” He said at a subsequent February event that it’s “about a $300 billion deficit with the European Union.”
Wrong once more. The new federal figures show that the 2024 deficit with the European Union in goods and services trade was $161.1 billion, up from $125.1 billion in 2023.
The 2024 deficit with the European Union in goods trade alone was $236.7 billion, up from $201.6 billion in 2023. So, counting only goods trade, Trump’s claims about the deficit with the European Union are a bit closer to the truth than his claims about the deficits with Canada, Mexico, and China – but they’re still not actually close to the truth.