CNN
—
Defying predictions and expectations, incumbent Daniel Noboa won Ecuador’s presidential election with a clear lead, securing his power at a time when the right on the South American continent looks towards US President Donald Trump as a model to emulate.
Noboa’s stance on combating organized crime amid the country’s security crisis resonated with voters, even though new international cooperation agreements have yet to materialize.
Noboa’s win can be framed within a moment when the Latin American right seeks to leverage Trump’s mandate, according to analysts consulted by CNN.
A right-wing movement that looks up to Trump
“There is a trend towards the right in general in Latin America, mainly due to the terrible governments that have held power under the poorly termed ‘Socialism of the 21st century,’” Eduardo Gamarra, a professor at Florida International University, told CNN.
Noboa’s victory reflects “the Latin American right will maintain this very important position in Ecuador and also has significant connections, of course, with other countries: there is a relationship between Noboa and (El Salvador’s President Nayib) Bukele and—as we all know—there is now a very close relationship between Noboa and President Trump,” Gamarra explained.
In early April, Noboa met with Trump at Mar-a-Lago, Florida. In a later interview, Noboa said the meeting was private and rated it as positive, without going into details.
Documents obtained by CNN show that the president is preparing to house US military forces in a new naval base on the Ecuadorean coast.
“The government is also open to international bases, which is why we proposed a bill in the Assembly through the Acción Democrática Nacional (ADN) movement and also to have joint work with the Ecuadorian Army and the National Police,” Noboa said April, referring to cooperation with the US on security matters.
In 2024, Noboa presented a partial amendment of the constitution to modify an article that prohibits “the existence of foreign military bases and facilities for military purposes” in the country. If the project is approved, it would be sent to a referendum for citizen voting.
Last year, Noboa reaffirmed two military agreements between Ecuador and the US.
“Indeed, what we have seen is a president very close to the United States government and very leveraged on the possibility that the United States government provides assistance at the security level,” explained analyst Ruth Hidalgo, executive director of the Corporación Participación Ciudadana and dean of the School of Political Science at the University of the Americas.
The realm of foreign relations is a key point for Noboa’s new term, beyond the approach to the US. “There is no script on how the country will position itself, not only on drug trafficking and insecurity but in general terms on the international environment,” says Santiago Basabe, a professor at the San Francisco University of Quito and director of the Ecuadorian Association of Political Science (Aecip).
“One of the big issues for Noboa is whether there is a true foreign policy for Ecuador. Where are we going to walk in terms of security, in terms of drug trafficking, in terms of which countries we will have closer or farther relationships with?” Basabe questions.
For Basabe, Noboa’s relationship with leftist leaders like Colombian President Gustavo Petro and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum is a mystery. These are two important countries for Ecuador. In the case of Mexico, there is also the challenge of the rupture of relations after the assault on that country’s embassy in Quito in 2024.
The economy and dollarization
Noboa gained ground in places where, in the first round, the opposing candidate Luisa González performed better, such as Guayaquil. “The reasons are related to issues like dollarization, for example,” explains Basabe, referring to the monetary system in effect for the last 25 years in Ecuador, which has broad citizen support. But González’s discourse on strengthening the model “never fully convinced” the voters, said Basabe.
González proposed that to protect dollarization, there would be an increase in the number of currencies entering Ecuador, and she suggested strengthening the national industry to increase exports and investment in education, health, and infrastructure. However, throughout the campaign, her political group’s positions on the subject were considered contradictory.
Diego Borja, González’s vice-presidential candidate, who also served as Minister of Economy and Finance in 2006 under then-President Rafael Correa, was scrutinized because of an academic article published in 2000 that referred to a “way out” of dollarization. Additionally, in March, Correa’s assembly member Paola Cabezas questioned the traditional approach to dollarization in Ecuador and stated that “we need to have a dollarization that is Ecuadorian.”
During the campaign, President Noboa said that Correísmo, the political current of former president Rafael Correa (2007-2017) represented by González, intended to establish a parallel currency, the so-called “ecuadollars.” In the presidential debate in March, González said she would “guarantee” dollarization and urged voters “not to be fooled” about it.
Noboa confirmed the dollar as the “only official means of payment” in Ecuador in a decree in March.
Economic stability was, therefore, a factor that may have influenced voters’ decisions in the second round. Basabe indicates that, in addition, his travels across the country delivering public works gave him an advantage: “The delivery of works and some other government measures, which one might also qualify as clientelist, could have also influenced.”
The challenge of governability
Noboa enters a new term with a divided Congress, elected in February. Professor Gamarra explains that the left-wing “Revolución Ciudadana will likely have the majority in Congress based on alliances that will probably be consolidated with the indigenous movement Pachakutik and with other much smaller parties.”
“Considering that with certainty or with high probability the legislature will be controlled by Revolución Ciudadana,” Noboa “has to generate very important changes in his policy,” opines Professor Basabe.
How will he carry out his political agenda to gain support? In that context, the reference point returns to the US. “We are seeing the trend in the United States as well: even though President Trump has control of both chambers, there is a trend towards governing by decree, by presidential directive,” explains Gamarra.
The analyst describes this trend as a problem of Latin American presidentialism and somewhat explains the voters’ decision: “When there is a deadlock with Congress, there is a trend for executive powers to govern by decree. And in the context of great insecurity, the Ecuadorian people demand greater security and are willing to give up rights.”
Pollster and political advisor Jaime Durán Barba, on the other hand, believes that Noboa has an easier path in this second term. It is, says Durán Barba, “a huge change in Ecuadorian politics since the first-round elections, where for the first time a large block that is not Correísmo and is not from Revolución Ciudadana appears in Congress in 20 years.”
Durán Barba points out as a significant fact that the most voted deputy in the country—who by law is entitled to the presidency of Congress—is Noboa’s mother, Anabela Azín.
“That is a radical change. Correísmo has had a majority in the Ecuadorian Parliament for over 20 years. I think it will be much easier for Noboa to govern.” Durán Barba also considers that the ground gained in the indigenous provinces indicates that the indigenous vote did not act according to “the national leadership”: the Pachakutik Movement, the political wing of the Confederation of Indigenous Nationalities of Ecuador (CONAIE), the most important in the country, consolidated a programmatic agreement with candidate González before the second round.
“The deputies respond to the local indigenous forces, and they will very easily be part of Noboa’s majority,” says Durán Barba.
Noboa’s new term not only ensures the continuation of his political project—it also signals a broader ideological realignment in Latin America. With a growing shift towards figures like Trump and Bukele, and a region-wide move to the right, Ecuador could become a bellwether for similar movements.
The real test now lies in how Noboa governs: whether he can deliver on his promises, navigate tense regional diplomacy, and address public security. His next steps could help boost the right-wing momentum in Latin America in the elections to come.
CNN’s Ana María Cañizares contributed to this report.