Well, the Champions League round of 16 concluded on Wednesday night with some unforgettable second legs and plenty of penalty shoot-out drama. Not only did Paris Saint-Germain eliminate Liverpool on spot-kicks at Anfield this week, but Real Madrid emerged from a trip to rivals Atletico Madrid with a similar victory after 120 tension-packed minutes to complete the field for the quarterfinals.
All in all, the ties offer plenty to talk about, from Arsenal getting a shot at Real Madrid to Aston Villa hoping to take down Paris Saint-Germain in what should be an electric affair. And how about Inter Milan taking on the presumptive champions of Germany, Bayern Munich?
While the dust settles on this week’s mayhem, let’s take a way-too-early look at how we think the quarterfinals — to be played April 8/9 and April 15/16 — will play out as Mark Ogden, Gabriele Marcotti, Beth Lindop, Rob Dawson and Julie Laurens make their predictions.
QF ONE: Arsenal vs. Real Madrid
First leg: April 8 | Second leg: April 16
OGDEN: Arsenal are Champions League rookies at this stage of the competition, and maybe the biggest club never to win it. Against Real Madrid, that matters. Real have absolutely no inferiority complex, no doubts when it comes to the Champions League, but there are question marks all over this Arsenal team — principally, who can score the goals to win the tie?
Meanwhile, Real have too much firepower and they win in every department, including on the touchline with Carlo Ancelotti overshadowing Mikel Arteta. There is a real danger of Arsenal being taken back to school in this tie. Real Madrid advance, 4-1 on aggregate
MARCOTTI: Real Madrid’s pedigree and star quality suggest they’ll go through, but there are factors Arsenal can exploit. Starting with the fact that they’ve clearly given up on the league, which means between now and April 8, if I’m Arteta, all I’m doing is preparing this game.
If he’s going to stick with Mikel Merino up front — it’s an absurd situation that was wholly avoidable, but let’s not go over old ground here — he needs to tweak his patterns of play so that he becomes an asset in the final third, and not just an out-of-position passenger. Remember when we used to bang on about Arsenal and their set pieces? Well, that guy is still there and set-piece defending is not Madrid’s forte.
I actually think this is going to be closer than many expect. Madrid still aren’t clicking, LaLiga’s title race is draining and too often the game plan is wait for Kylian Mbappé, Jude Bellingham or Vinicius Jr. to do something (or for Fede Valverde to leather it from deep). If that happens, there’s no much you can do, but if it doesn’t and this game is decided on football and tactics, it’s a toss-up. Real Madrid advance, 1-0 on aggregate
LAURENS: Real Madrid will be the favorites, especially with the second leg at the Bernabeu. Arsenal are struggling for creativity at the moment, unless they play PSV Eindhoven. They don’t have a proper No.9, even with the return from injury of Gabriel Martinelli.
It might not be a bad thing for the Gunners to be the underdogs and they’ve hopefully learned a lot from their loss at this stage of the competition last season against Bayern Munich. But Real Madrid are the Kings of Europe, the reigning champions. There is an aura about them in this competition, and it will count for sure next month. Real Madrid advance, 4-2 on aggregate
ESPN FC’s Craig Burley has labeled Real Madrid’s front three as “awful” after Carlo Ancelotti’s side beat Atletico Madrid on penalties to advance to the Champions League quarterfinals.
DAWSON: Arsenal’s season, which showed some early promise, is in danger of petering out into nothing. The title has gone; all they’ve got left is the Champions League. The first leg against a sloppy PSV Eindhoven aside, Arsenal are struggling to score goals and the rest of the campaign could now become a real slog. It wouldn’t be a massive surprise if they found themselves slipping down the Premier League table.
Mikel Arteta’s side would struggle to beat Real Madrid even if they were in fantastic form and they won’t have enough up front to knock out the kings of the Champions League. Real Madrid advance, 4-1 on aggregate
LINDOP: When it comes to the Champions League, only a fool would bet against Real Madrid. Carlo Ancelotti’s side were some way from their best against Atlético in the round of 16, but as they so often do, they found a way. It is that innate belief in their own abilities — plus their wealth of talent — that will surely give them the edge over Arsenal, who are desperately in need of an attacking spark and have not yet demonstrated they have what it takes to get over the line at the highest level. Real Madrid advance, 4-2 on aggregate
QF TWO: Paris Saint-Germain vs. Aston Villa
First leg: April 9 | Second leg: April 15
OGDEN: PSG are a really, really good team and their win at Liverpool will give them the confidence that they can finally win the Champions League this season. They tore Man City apart at Parc des Princes in the League Phase, and also made Liverpool look ordinary over two legs. So despite Villa’s great run to the quarters, there is only one winner in this tie and that’s PSG. Vitinha, João Neves and Ousmane Dembélé have been outstanding in recent weeks and they’ll be way too good for Villa. PSG advance, 4-1 on aggregate
Ale Moreno says the departure of Kylian Mbappe to Real Madrid has enabled Luis Enrique to turn PSG into a stronger team overall.
MARCOTTI: I’m fascinated by the clash between PSG bosses past and present. Luis Enrique is a genius, but he’s also like Icarus: he flies too close to the sun, gets a little too fancy and presto! — he gets dumped on his backside. That’s what Emery — who, let’s face it, is the opposite — is going to try to do, exploiting whatever flaws he spots in this team. He also won’t hesitate to go long time and again to break the press if he has to, or even get a little ugly if it means winning.
Logic suggests PSG so I’ll go with that, but underestimate Emery in a knockout setting at your peril. PSG advance, 4-3 on aggregate
LAURENS: This is the tie of old friends reunited! Emery meets the club he managed from 2016-18 with highs (the win against Barcelona) and the lows (the loss against Barcelona). Then you have Lucas Digne, Paris-born and a former PSG player (2013-2015).
What about Marco Asensio? Loaned out in January by PSG to Villa, where his impact has been great already with seven goals so far. You also have Marcus Rashford going back to the Parc des Princes five years after he knocked out PSG with Manchester United. Bouba Kamara, former Marseille midfielder, will face again his old enemy, while Axel Disasi is also Paris-born and once played for the other Paris team, Paris FC.
Even with the second leg at home, Aston Villa are the outsiders against this PSG team, currently the best in Europe. PSG advance, 4-2 on aggregate
DAWSON: PSG have made themselves one of the favourites to win the whole thing after dumping Liverpool. They’ll certainly fancy their chances against Aston Villa, but Villa will also see a chance to go through: Emery might even admit privately that he’s happy facing PSG rather than Liverpool.
It seems as though PSG have hit another level since beating Manchester City 4-2 in January and while Emery will relish the opportunity to out-wit his former club, PSG’s quality should be decisive over two legs. The game at Villa Park will be tight, although it could be all over after the first leg in Paris. PSG advance, 4-2 on aggregate
The ESPN FC crew discuss how far Aston Villa can go in the Champions League after Unai Emery’s side reached the quarterfinals.
LINDOP: Aston Villa have been transformed under Emery and his record in European competition is impressive. However, PSG are my favourites to go on and win the competition this season.
Having been lucky enough to be in the stadium for both legs of their round-of-16 tie with Liverpool, I can confidently say they look like the best team in Europe at the moment and, even with the second leg at Villa Park, I think PSG will have far too much for the Premier League side. PSG advance, 5-2 on aggregate
QF THREE: Barcelona vs. Borussia Dortmund
First leg: April 9 | Second leg: April 15
OGDEN: There’s no reason to back Borussia Dortmund to win this tie other than the fact that they have the ability to somehow produce their best in the Champions League when their domestic form is average at best. Dortmund scraped past Lille to make it this far, but it’s tough to see them keeping Barcelona quiet over two legs. This looks like the most one-sided tie of the round and Barca should win comfortably. Barcelona advance, 4-1 on aggregate
MARCOTTI: Dortmund, lest we forget, are in the bottom half of the Bundesliga, which is why this is a serious mismatch. There’s plenty of pace in the wide areas for Dortmund, so I guess some sort of game plan where they try to exploit Hansi Flick’s high line might be the way to go for Nilo Kovac? Problem is, everybody tries to do that against Barca and few succeed.
I’m not sure how they plan on ever getting the ball back in midfield (and Pascal Gross is suspended too), and the prospect of Lamine Yamal and Raphinha against whatever defensive combination — Yann Couto, Ryerson or Rami Bensebaini? — Kovac pulls out of the hat is scary. Barcelona advance, 3-0 on aggregate
Craig Burley says Benfica’s open style of play made them the perfect opponents for Barcelona, who advance to the Champions League quarterfinals.
LAURENS: Barcelona will destroy this average Dortmund team, make no mistake about it. Barça are too good going forward, have two of the best and most in-form players in the world (Lamine Yamal, Raphinha), they have a dominant midfield, a great bench and even if they are sometimes exposed defensively thanks to Flick’s insistence on a super-high high defensive line, Dortmund won’t be able to stop them anyway.
BVB boss Kovac has been on their bench for a month, but has not made much of an impact despite their run to the quarterfinals. Unfortunately, unless something dramatic happens to the Barcelona superstars, they stand no chance next month. Barcelona advance, 5-0 on aggregate
DAWSON: Barcelona made relatively light work of Benfica in the last round despite playing with 10 men for most of the first leg, and they’ll be heavy favourites to reach the last four. Borussia Dortmund reached the final last year, but they’re having a difficult season. They’re 10th in the Bundesliga for a reason.
Barcelona played Dortmund in the league phase in December and came away from Signal Iduna Park with a 3-2 win. Dortmund’s best hope is to get a result in the first leg in Spain and then try to nick something at home. However, it’s more likely that Barcelona will win both games and cruise into the semifinals. Barcelona advance, 5-1 on aggregate
LINDOP: Barcelona have been one of the most entertaining teams in this season’s competition and alongside PSG, they look most qualified to go on and win the whole thing. Raphinha and Yamal are both in superb form at the moment and, while Signal Iduna Park can produce a special atmosphere on Champions League nights, it’s hard to see Dortmund being able to live with Barcelona’s quality over the two legs.
I predict a comfortable win for the Spanish league leaders. Barcelona advance, 4-1 on aggregate.
QF FOUR: Bayern Munich vs. Inter Milan
First leg: April 8 | Second leg: April 16
Ale Moreno previews the Champions League quarterfinal matchup between Bayern Munich and Inter.
OGDEN: This is my tie of the round in terms of the magnitude of the two clubs, the clash of styles and what boils down to Inter’s rock solid defence measuring up against Bayern’s goal threat from Harry Kane, Kingsley Coman, Jamal Musiala and Michael Olise. Bayern have scored 28 goals in the competition, Inter just 15, but Inter have conceded just two goals, and kept 8 clean sheets, so far.
Bayern have conceded 14 goals already, so I’m taking Inter’s solidity to be the deciding factor. Inter Milan advance, 2-1 on aggregate
MARCOTTI: I think this is really tight. Bayern are in a transition season and generally haven’t been impressive but they’re 8 points clear at the top of the Bundesliga and just beat Leverkusen 5-0 on aggregate. That has to mean something, right?
I think it’s also hugely relevant that, while Inter have a big squad and Inzaghi loves to rotate, they’re showing signs of wear and, unlike Bayern (whose domestic season is over), they’re in a dogfight for the Serie A title and have a derby against Milan coming up in the Coppa Italia. That’s why I’m leaning Bayern in this one: they’re going to be far fresher. Bayern Munich advance, 3-2 on aggregate
LAURENS: This is without doubt the tie I’m the most looking forward to seeing! Inter are by far the best defence in the competition so far and Bayern, even with their attacking firepower, will have to be really good to trouble them. On the other hand, the Italian front two of Lautaro Martínez and Marcus Thuram could hurt any team. Tactically, Simone Inzaghi has surely the upper hand in terms of experience and savoir faire than Vincent Kompany but it will be interesting to see how Inter deal with the German’s press, especially in Munich. Inter Milan advance, 2-1 on aggregate
DAWSON: Bayern Munich are well on their way to reclaiming the Bundesliga title, but they’re form in the Champions League has been mixed. There were defeats at Aston Villa, Barcelona and Feyenoord in the league phase and they only just scraped past Celtic in the play-off round. They’ll rely on an attacking threat spearheaded by Harry Kane — who has got 10 goals in 11 games in Europe this season — but Inter Milan are disciplined and organised under Simone Inzaghi. A tight tie, it may come down to a tactical battle on the touchline and Inzaghi has the edge over Vincent Kompany. Inter Milan advance, 3-2 on aggregate
LINDOP: I think either way, this tie is going to be tight. Bayern Munich are doing well domestically and have some really talented attacking players, spearheaded by the talismanic Kane. However, their performances in the Champions League haven’t been entirely convincing this term and Inter’s defensive discipline, coupled with the power of the San Siro, might just prove to be their undoing.
I think this could be the most tactically interesting of the quarter-final ties, with Inter just edging it for me on aggregate. Inter Milan advance, 3-2 on aggregate