We’ve arrived at the business end of the Africa Cup of Nations qualifying campaign, with the final field of 24 for next year’s biennial tournament set to be settled during this international break.
We have two AFCON qualifying gameweeks to look forward to, and with only 10 of the 24 finalists having been decided, there’s still much to play for in a frantic week of fixtures across the continent.
Here are the big talking points and the subplots to track across the conclusion to a controversial and compelling qualifying campaign.
Ghana on the brink
AFCON 2025 in Morocco is surely set to be without one of Africa’s big names, with five-time champions Ghana (only Egypt and Cameroon have won more titles) likely to miss the showpiece.
They have been absent from the continental high table only once since 1990, and failure to qualify would cap an annus horribilis in which they were dumped out of the Nations Cup in the group stage and sacked Chris Hughton.
Their talented squad, now under new management with Otto Addo at the helm, has the quality to walk their qualifying group but their all-but inevitable ‘no show’ in Morocco will represent the latest step in the team’s steady decline; they reached the semifinal or final in six consecutive tournaments between 2008 and 2017, but their past three tournament exits have come in the round of 16 or group Stage (twice).
The permutations for the Black Stars are very simple: They must win both of their matches (Angola away, Niger at home) and Sudan must lose both of theirs (Niger away, Angola at home) for Ghana to qualify at the Falcons’ expense. Such a scenario would certainly represent one of the most remarkable comebacks in AFCON qualifying history.
Addo going without Partey
As if Ghana’s plight weren’t precarious enough, the Black Stars are tackling their two outstanding fixtures without midfield talisman Thomas Partey.
The Arsenal man — in fine recent form under Mikel Arteta – has not been named in Addo’s squad for the international break, with the Ghana head coach revealing ahead of the fixtures that the decision had come as a result of a “confidential conversation” between the pair.
“For me, the team is like a family, and I don’t intend to talk about external problems,” Addo said at a press conference. “He wanted to come, but I clearly explained why he wasn’t. It’s confidential, and difficult for me to mention all of the details.”
Iñaki Williams, Tariq Lamptey and Alexander Djiku are also absent due to fitness concerns.
Osimhen looking sharp for Nigeria return
Nigeria have experienced their fair share of tumult since reaching the Nations Cup final — parting ways with Jose Peseiro, the brief fling with Finidi George, a poor start to the FIFA World Cup qualifying campaign — but they are sitting pretty atop Group D with two games to play.
Three of their 10 points came after a CAF Disciplinary Committee hearing following the Eagles’ exploits during the last international break, when their plane from Nigeria to Libya was diverted to a different location before the players were detained in the airport amid a spiraling spat between the nations.
CAF came down on Nigeria’s side, putting the Super Eagle within touching distance of Morocco.
The Super Eagles require just one point from their matches against Benin and Rwanda to guarantee qualification, and they’ll be boosted by the return to action of Victor Osimhen.
Osimhen has returned to the camp after an injury absence, and he is in fine form with Galatasaray, for whom he’s had a hand in seven goals in six Super Lig games.
Osimhen is the top African striker in the world today, and his aerial ability, intensity, finishing and game intelligence add another dimension (or two) to Nigeria’s attack.
Dovetailing again with Ballon d’Or nominee Ademola Lookman, and potentially afforded the opportunity to forge a partnership with in-form Bayer Leverkusen striker Victor Boniface, Osimhen could be primed to fire Nigeria to AFCON in some style.
Burkina Faso audition for Pape Thiaw?
Senegal parted ways with AFCON-winning head coach Aliou Cisse at the start of October, but they are yet to appoint a permanent successor to the 48-year-old.
So, for a second international break, they’ll be overseen by Pape Thiaw, under whose steady hand the Teranga Lions dispatched Malawi home and away last month.
The likes of Habib Beye and Omar Daf have been mooted as potential successors, but promoting from within worked well a decade ago when the Senegalese Football Association put its faith in Cisse, and there will surely be the temptation to do so again with Thiaw, a World Cup quarterfinalist with Senegal in 2002.
A stiff test against Burkina Faso in Bamako followed by a home meeting with Burundi may be a final audition for Thiaw, with star defender Kalidou Koulibaly expressing confidence in the interim boss.
“It’s a new era, and we’re going to see what happens,” the centre-back told SuperSport. “For the moment, we have a coach in Pape Thiaw, who’s doing a good job as you can see from the last two games. We have all confidence in the coach, and we’ll see what happens [with a future appointment]. For the moment, we’re all focused with this coach and his staff.”
Can CAR become first-time qualifiers?
Of the teams still standing in the AFCON qualifying campaign, only one — Central African Republic — has not previously qualified for the competition.
There was some optimism, when the groups were drawn, that they could be well placed to advance from Group B alongside guaranteed qualifiers Morocco, with tiny Lesotho and an aging Gabon team both looking vulnerable.
Msakni cut for remodelled Tunisia
Tunisia lead Group A with two matches remaining, but their position isn’t as comfortable as all other group leaders, with Comoros 6(six points) and Gambia (five) both capable of overhauling the North Africans (seven points). Indeed, there is a scenario whereby the Eagles can finish bottom of the group if they lose to Madagascar (two points) in Pretoria on Thursday.
Defeat by Comoros in October cost 74-year-old head coach Faouzi Benzarti his job, and his interim successor, Kais Yaakoubi, has shuffled his pack by dropping 10 players for the final two gameweeks.
Skipper Youssef Msakni, a veteran of eight AFCONs, is the highest-profile absentee, with Ferjani Sassi and Seifeddine Jaziri also losing their places.
Msakni, now 34 and ensconced in the Qatari Stars League since 2021, isn’t the force he once was, but he remains capable of moments of breathtaking innovation. Removing him from an attacking unit that has been devoid of flair and dynamism is a risky approach by the new man.
Broos makes Bafana AFCON threat
A semifinalist with South Africa earlier this year, Hugo Broos has warned that his tenure as Bafana Bafana manager will come to a premature end if his side fails to qualify for the Nations Cup.
South Africa sit second in Group K and have good reason to be confident, with a home game against point-less South Sudan next week to conclude their qualifying campaign.
Regardless of their result at group leaders Uganda on Friday, victory against the Bright Stars in Cape Town will take them through regardless of Congo‘s results.
Nonetheless, Broos is taking nothing for granted.
“If we’d lose both games, five minutes after the game I’m on the flight to Belgium,” Broos said ahead of the Uganda fixture. “You can be sure of it. If we can’t win — OK, Uganda [are tough], but at home against South Sudan — I tell you I’ll immediately take a flight and you’ll never see me again.
“We are bronze medallists. Can you imagine if the bronze medal [winners] of nine months ago can’t even qualify for the next AFCON?”
Bafana have slipped up against Mauritania, Sierra Leone and Niger in not-too-distant qualifying campaigns, but failure against South Sudan will represent a whole new level of ignominy.