CNN
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One of the Middle East’s most intractable conflicts may be nearing its end, with ramifications that will be felt far and wide.
For half a century, Kurdish militants have fought Turkey for independence in the southeast of the country, a region heavily populated by ethnic Kurds. The battle has claimed more than 40,000 lives and has rippled beyond Turkey’s borders into Iran, Iraq, and Syria.
On Thursday, Abdullah Ocalan, the jailed leader of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), called on its members to lay down arms and dissolve the group.
If his followers heed that call, it would mark a turning point for Turkey and have far-reaching implications for the Middle East.
Here’s why.
What is Turkey’s fight with the PKK about?
The conflict between the PKK and Turkey has had devastating effects on Turkey and neighboring countries.
Much of the fighting has focused on the PKK’s desire to establish an independent Kurdish state in Turkey, but in recent years the group has called for more autonomy within the country instead.
Ocalan founded the PKK in 1978 as a Kurdish separatist group in Turkey, part of a larger separatist movement by Kurds scattered throughout the region.
Violence flared in August 1984 when PKK fighters killed two Turkish soldiers. As the years passed, clashes escalated and the death toll mounted, the PKK increasingly turned to militancy.
Kurds are the biggest minority in Turkey, making up between 15% and 20% of the population, according to Minority Rights Group International. They also have a significant presence in northern Syria, northern Iraq and Iran.
Turkey’s war with the PKK has been coupled with a crackdown on pro-Kurdish parties, politicians and activists that have long been accused by Turkey of having links to the group.
The United States, the European Union and Turkey classify the PKK as a terrorist group.
Ocalan was captured in 1999 in Kenya by Turkish authorities, reportedly with the help of the CIA, and sentenced to life imprisonment for treason. For years, he was the sole inmate at Imrali prison – an Alcatraz-like island south of Istanbul in the Sea of Marmara.
Turkey began a peace process with the PKK in 2013, and two years later Ocalan made a similar call for his followers to lay down their arms. But just a few months later, violence flared again, and the two sides returned to war.
Why is this happening now?
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who has ruled Turkey for more than two decades, has been eying a constitutional change that will allow him to run for a third term in the country’s 2028 elections.
Erdogan extended his rule into a third decade by winning the 2023 elections, after reshaping the political system through constitutional changes in 2017 that abolished the prime minister’s office and established an executive presidency, vastly expanding his powers.
Constitutional changes require a two-thirds majority vote in parliament.
Some experts say that for the president to secure this, he will need the support of the pro-Kurdish DEM party, the third biggest in parliament. This is the same group whose lawmakers liaised between Ocalan and government and ultimately read out the Kurdish leader’s statement from prison.
“Erdogan’s ruling alliance may see this as a chance to win over the pro-Kurdish DEM party for constitutional changes that could extend his presidency while granting Kurds more rights,” said Berkay Mandiraci, a Turkey analyst at the International Crisis Group think tank in Brussels.
Ahmet Kasim Han, professor of international relations at Beykoz University in Istanbul, said that pro-Kurdish parties have sought changes to the constitution that “represent some of the very important issues from the Kurdish separatist perspective.”
The Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), Erdogan’s right-wing ally, has also become a staunch supporter of the peace process, experts said.
Prospects of Kurdish-Turkish peace were recharged in recent months by an unusual overture from MHP leader Devlet Bahceli, who invited Ocalan to come to parliament and “declare that he has laid down his arms.”
What the PKK itself gains out of this deal is yet to be seen.
Gonul Tol, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute in Washington, DC, said that Erdogan has previously failed to make peace with the PKK because he wouldn’t acknowledge Kurdish demands.
“Each previous attempt has ended in failure, and skeptics argue that Erdogan’s peace efforts never address Kurdish democratic demands,” Tol said. “And today, nothing has changed – Erdogan’s goal isn’t democratic reform, it’s to stay in power for life.”
“And very soon, we will find out: will Ocalan and the Kurds gain anything in return?” she said.
In his statement Thursday, Ocalan said the PKK had gained support among Kurds in the past because “the channels of democratic politics were closed” to them.
Regional implications
Beyond domestic incentives, Erdogan may be seeing critical regional shifts that make this strategic deal all the more necessary, experts said.
“Turkey has long feared rivals like Iran and Israel exploiting its conflict with the PKK,” Mandiraci told CNN, adding that “as the Middle East reshapes, and Turkey is poised to play an important role in Syria, Ankara sees ending this long-standing conflict as a strategic necessity.”
The region has witnessed massive changes in the past year. Syrian President Bashar al-Assad was toppled by rebel groups in December and Israel has been steadily expanding its influence in Syria by taking over new territory and intensifying military operations.
In Syria, a PKK-affiliated Kurdish militia called the People’s Protection Units (YPG) forms the backbone of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), the US-backed force that fought ISIS.
The country’s new president, Ahmed al-Sharaa, has called on the YPG to integrate into the national army, but the Kurdish group has insisted that it operate as a distinct unit within the army, which Syria’s government has rejected.
It remains unclear if the YPG will heed Ocalan’s call to disarm.
At a news conference soon after Ocalan’s announcement, SDF commander Mazloum Abdi said that the call to lay down arms “was for the PKK guerrillas and not about us here in northeast Syria.”
“I received a message here in Syria, and in the letter, (Ocalan) emphasized peace,” Abdi continued. “When peace flourishes in Turkey, it will have a positive impact on us here in Syria.”
Israel is also unlikely to welcome Ocalan’s call, given its support for Kurds in Syria, experts say.
Israel sees Syria’s Kurds as a potential ally and has called for them to be protected against a Turkish military campaign. Ankara has in turn said Israel’s moves in Syria are “expansionism.”
“Israelis won’t like it,” Han said, adding that the extent of Israel’s influence in Syria will now depend on how Washington sees the PKK’s move. The Trump administration, he said, is unlikely to oppose Ocalan’s move.
Following Assad’s fall, Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar said that “attacks on the Kurds… must be stopped.”
“It’s a commitment of the international community towards those who fought bravely against ISIS and won against ISIS, and it’s also a commitment for the future of Syria, because the Kurds are a stabilizing force in this country,” Saar said in December.
CNN’s Gul Tuysuz, Max Saltman, Isil Sariyuce contributed to this report.