Eastern Ukraine
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US President Donald Trump has said he will slash the 50-day deadline he gave for Russia’s Vladimir Putin to reach a ceasefire with Ukraine by weeks, to just “10 or 12 days” from now. But does a shorter deadline make a difference at all, if, as Trump says, his Russian counterpart has already made up his mind to not make peace?
Possibly. Ukraine is facing its most challenging moment on the front lines since the start of the war. By September 3 – when the original 50-day mark would have passed – many of the gains Moscow is in the midst of making would likely be realized.
Given the pace and strategic nature of the advances Moscow has made in just the past fortnight, it is likely that in the coming weeks its forces will have gotten close to encircling the eastern hubs of Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka, and Kupiansk in the north.
That would massively change the dynamic of the front lines and bring Putin’s goal of taking the Donetsk region within reach. It would also make the defense of the land between the east of Ukraine and Kyiv a much greater challenge for the winter ahead. Ukraine would have lost control of most of the towns it relies on now to hold the east, and be struggling to retain a grip on Kramatorsk and Sloviansk.
Trump’s words were welcomed in Kyiv, where Andriy Yermak, chief of staff to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, said he was “standing firm and delivering a clear message of peace through strength.”
“(The US President) has already said he’s shortening the timeline he gave Putin, because he believes the answer is obvious. Putin respects only power – and that message is loud and clear,” Yermak said on X.
What comes in 10 to 12 days is key. Another empty threat or altered Trump deadline would play into the TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) sensitivities of his administration and be a gift to those who doubt that Trump is willing to really play hardball with the Kremlin.
Imposing the secondary sanctions, or tariffs, that Trump has threatened would, however, have enormous global impact. These involve punishing India and China for buying Russian oil and gas.
India is a US ally, hugely dependent on Russian energy and allowed to buy it through various complex mechanisms to prevent its demand on other energy markets causing oil prices to soar, damaging the American economy too. China is a Russian ally, even more dependent on Russian energy, and caught in a complex, at times symbiotic, economic relationship with the United States, which often teeters towards a trade war.
If Trump sanctions either, it will damage the US and the global energy market, and mean his actions have likely been more pronounced and aggressive than any of the actions of his predecessor, US President Joe Biden.
Chinese pressure could influence Moscow’s behaviour, but Beijing has also told European diplomats it cannot afford for Russia to lose because the US would then turn its entire attention to China. China may bank on a weakened Trump rather than rejig its entire geopolitical approach.
And so, we have a fortnight in which Moscow must persuade its allies and customers to hold fast in buying the energy they so badly need. Ukraine must try to hold whatever positions it can, in the face of a furious and successful Russian assault. And the Trump administration must decide whether its threats mean something.
And if they are unwilling to impose and endure a vast economic earthquake, they must find a convincing off-ramp so their deadlines and threats continue to carry some weight.