CNN
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Japan’s longtime ruling party is projected to lose its majority after Sunday’s general election, in what would be a major blow to new Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba amid public anger over economic woes and a series of political scandals.
Exit polls Sunday from public broadcaster NHK suggest Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) will struggle to reach a majority, raising uncertainty over the make-up of the government of the world’s fourth-largest economy.
If correct, it would mark the first time since 2009 that the LDP has lost its majority in the lower house of the Diet, the national parliament. The LDP, a conservative political machine, has ruled the country almost continuously since the party’s founding in 1955.
Ishiba said voters had delivered a “severe judgement” to his party, NHK reported.
The NHK poll showed the LDP and junior coalition partner Komeito were set to win between 174 and 254 of the 465 seats in the lower house of Japan’s parliament.
A party or coalition needs 233 seats to control the 465-seat House of Representatives. Ahead of the elections, the LDP and its coalition partner Komeito had a stable majority of 279 seats while the LDP alone had 247 – when results are confirmed the LDP could have lost both.
The main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDPJ) was predicted to win 128 to 191 seats, according to the exit polls.
Ishiba, a former defense minister, called a snap election shortly after winning the party’s leadership contest last month, seeking to reinforce his public mandate.
The exit polls signal political uncertainty as Ishiba may now struggle to form a government.
To remain in power, the LDP could try and bring other parties into its coalition or rule via a minority government, with both options putting Ishiba’s position as prime minister in jeopardy.
Fresh setback
Before the election the LDP faced falling approval ratings and public discontent over one of the country’s biggest political scandals in decades, as well as increasing living costs, which have been exacerbated by the weak yen, a sluggish economy and high inflation.
The funding scandal involved millions of dollars in undocumented political funds, and lawmakers allegedly lining their own pockets with kickbacks or failing to properly declare their income.
Former Prime Minister Fumio Kishida tried to contain the damage by replacing several cabinet ministers and dissolving LDP factions, essentially coalitions within the party. But he faced calls to resign and announced in August that he would not run for a second term.
Ishiba, a political veteran, has pledged financial help to low-income households, a higher minimum wage, and regional revitalization, according to Reuters. He has also promised a “full exit” from Japan’s high inflation rates, vowing to achieve “growth in real wages.”
Ishiba has made strengthening Japan’s relations with the United States a priority and seeks deeper ties with allies amid growing security challenges in Asia, including an increasingly assertive China and belligerent North Korea.
Partnership with Japan has long been central to US strategy in the Asia-Pacific region, and Ishiba’s predecessor Kishida this year expanded Japan’s defense cooperation with its key ally. Ishiba has called for a more balanced relationship, including having greater oversight of US military bases in Japan, Reuters reports.
As defense minister, Ishiba was strong on deterrence as a security issue. He even proposed an Asian version of the NATO security bloc, an idea he has apparently dropped after it was rebuffed by the US.
In a political culture that prizes conformity, Ishiba has long been something of an outlier, willing to criticize and go against his own party. That willingness to speak out has made him powerful enemies within the LDP but endeared him to more grassroots members and the public.